What we can take away from 11/7
1. Negative Ads Work
I don’t care what the pundits say or what wishful people think. Reducing an election choice to the lesser of two evils seems to work beautifully. Primaty evidence being the Illinois Governor’s race. Secondary is Cook County President.
Blagojevich went negative almost immediately after the primaries making Topinka seem like a piece of scum, when in reality, she was a respected public servant - she just doesn’t have a drop of charisma. Stroger’s camp successfully pinned a host of allegations on Peraica - that even if true (they weren’t) - had nothing to do with the office he was seeking. Stroger’s campaign manager even admitted to “filling in the blanks” with the accusation that Peraica wanted to cut county health funding (actually Peraica wanted a mild expansion by hiring more primary care providers). Stroger campaign manager’s words: “He’d have to…”
2. It was all about President Bush
A few individual races were run on their own merit but this election was overwhelmingly a rebuke of Bush policies in Iraq and at home.
Had we pulled out of Iraq when he declared “Mission Accomplished”, this would have been a very different election. If the typical voter could feel the effects of our “improving” economy, this would have been a very different election.
The president’s coattails actually tripped up several moderate Republicans who should have won easily if not for the electorate’s feelings about the President. And those that survived are the ones that best distanced themselves from him.
3. It had nothing to do with Democratic Strategy
Howard Dean and Nancy Pelosi will be quick to trumpet their great strategy to win the election and re-connect with the people. That wasn’t what happened. The Republican party (Abramof, Foley, etc) and the President handed it to them.
The Republicans ran scared and had no message this time around. Nothing to motivate people other than “they’ll cut and run” and “they’ll raise your taxes”.
It is unfortunate that the Greens and Libs aren’t a little more entrenched. In a real three (or four) party race this would have been a lot more interesting.